Series on Knowing What You Don’t Know: The Hidden Variable in Project Success
Part 5: Challenging the “Business as Usual” Assumption
Project plans often rest on one quiet, lethal assumption: that tomorrow will be much like today. But in pharma, that’s rarely the case. Clinical landscapes shift. Regulators update expectations. Markets flip on signals from a single trial.
Failure to challenge the “business as usual” assumption turns uncertainty into risk. Yet teams often avoid these challenges, fearing they’ll slow down progress or introduce friction.
What’s needed is structured dissent. Schedule a “red team” review early in development. Invite a mix of skeptics and veterans. Ask deliberately provocative questions:
- What would cause this project to lose funding?
- What if the lead indication becomes obsolete?
- What are we assuming will go right — and how often does it actually?
Takeaway: Projects must be stress-tested against future volatility, not past momentum. Don’t just manage risks—challenge the premises behind them.
By Mike Florence, Volker Möckel, Stephen Bingham